You can expect The King’s Speech to royally crush the competition at the Academy Awards this Sunday, Feb. 27, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. It’s the clear favorite for Best Picture, Director and Actor, and it should pick up a number of other awards (such as Costume Design) as well. Still, The Social Network will give it a run for its money, and Inception should pick up a handful of technical awards.
Below are Dan and Andrew's picks for the “big six” Oscar categories, including who will win and who should win each, as often the two are not the same.
Supporting Actor
Dan: Christian Bale will walk away with the trophy, as his crazed, over-the-top performance has the type of glam that’s often rewarded with statues. In contrast, Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” was brilliant in a subtle way, which often shamefully gets overlooked. Mark Ruffalo (“The Kids Are All Right”), Jeremy Renner (“The Town”) and John Hawkes (“Winter’s Bone”) round out the nominees. Will win: Bale. Should win: Rush.
Andrew: Should Win: Christian Bale. A consistently great performer with an uncanny ability to transform and disappear into his roles. He’s almost unrecognizable as Dicky Eklund, the emaciated, crack addict brother of Mark Wahlberg’s Micky Ward. Will Win: Christian Bale. Geoffrey Rush may pull of an upset, but I think that the Academy will want to award this film, and they’ll do it in the categories for supporting performances.
Supporting Actress
Dan: Two women from “The Fighter” will duke it out here, including Melissa Leo, who’s the favorite, and Amy Adams, who no doubt will own an Oscar one day – just not this year. Hailee Steinfeld was great in “True Grit,” but she’s in the wrong category as she was the only lead role in that movie. Also nominated is Helena Bonham Carter for “The King’s Speech” and Jacki Weaver for “Animal Kingdom.” This is one of the weakest categories of the night, and in truth the Oscar should be going to Lesley Manville for “Another Year,” but inexplicably she’s not nominated. Will win: Leo. Should win: Steinfeld.
Andrew: Should Win: Amy Adams. She’s a ball of fire as Micky’s girlfriend Charlene, but also shows a tender, graceful side in the scenes with Wahlberg that demonstrate how Micky and Charlene came to be together and love one another. Will Win: Melissa Leo. Another ball of fire, but without the tenderness. Alice Ward is a force to be reckoned with onscreen, and Melissa Leo will be a force to be reckoned with come Oscar night.
Best Actor
Dan: Look no further than Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech.” He’s well respected, and Academy voters love triumph-over-adversity stories. The other nominees need not even show up, although Franco was absolutely unbelievable as Aron Ralston. But if you’re going to pick an upset, you have the following to choose from: Jesse Eisenberg (“The Social Network”), Javier Bardem (“Biutiful”), James Franco (“127 Hours”) and last year’s winner in this category for “Crazy Heart,” Jeff Bridges (“True Grit”). Will win: Firth. Should win: Franco.
Andrew: Should Win: Colin Firth. He is absolutely fantastic as King George VI. Firth won me over in the first scene. We see the pain in his eyes and immediately understand his struggle. From there, we root for him to find a way to overcome his stammer and become a great leader. Will Win: Colin Firth. The competition is strong in this category, but based on the accolades that Firth has already received, he seems like the odds-on favorite to go home with an Oscar on Sunday.
Best Actress
Dan: The race will come down to two phenomenal leading ladies: Natalie Portman for “Black Swan” and Annette Bening for “The Kids Are All Right.” The prevailing notion is that the Oscar is Portman’s to lose, as it was a career-defining performance that came with great sacrifice from the young starlet. But Bening has been around a long time, this is her fourth nomination, and she’s very well respected. Plus, she owned her movie. The other nominees are Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”), Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”), and Jennifer Lawrence (“Winter’s Bone”). This is a tough call. Will win: Portman. Should win: Bening.
Andrew: Should Win: Natalie Portman. She skated on the brink of insanity and starved herself waif thin to play a ballerina mentally unraveling under the pressure to perform. The fact that she was able to control the performance enough to convey what her character is going through is truly remarkable, and should be rewarded. Will Win: Natalie Portman. The academy has an appreciation for young, dedicated actress who fully commit to their roles, and they like to award as such.
Best Director
Dan: Given that Christopher Nolan was wrongfully snubbed for consideration in this category, this will be a showdown between David Fincher’s brilliant work on “The Social Network” and Tom Hooper’s softer, less-flashy but emotionally hard-hitting direction of “The King’s Speech.” Topping both of them but not a real contender here is Darren Aronofsky for his rich and textured work on “Black Swan.” Honored to be nominated are David O. Russell (“The Fighter”) and Joel and Ethan Coen (“True Grit”). If Academy members can be honest with themselves, Fincher’s editing, pacing and sheer craftsmanship should get him this award. Will win: Fincher, in an upset. Should win: Aronofsky.
Andrew: Should Win: David Fincher. He brought the skills he learned as a suspense director doing films like “Seven” and “Zodiac” into play in “The Social Network” with a story that unfolds with overlapping time frames and still manages to hold together perfectly as a whole. Will Win: David Fincher. The academy is going to be divided between “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” for the Best Picture race, so they’ll split the accolades and award this one to Fincher for his masterful job helming a complex story.
Best Picture
Dan: Really this race is down to two: critical darling “The Social Network,” which was the odds-on favorite in December and January when it won nearly all the critics’ awards, and “The King’s Speech,” which emerged as the favorite after winning all the more recent “Guild” (Director’s, Producer’s, Screen Actor’s, etc.) awards. Given that a good amount of Oscar voters are also members of their respective Guilds, it would be flat-out irresponsible to not pick “The King’s Speech” to win. That said, “Inception” was absolutely fantastic and deserves the honor. But that’s also my wishful thinking talking. Will win: “The King’s Speech” Should win: “Inception”
Andrew: Should Win: “The Social Network.” David Fincher’s timely story of the founding of Facebook is a compelling, well paced antidote to the dreck that 2010 gave us. Will Win: “The King’s Speech.” It’s the type of period piece that the Academy gravitates toward, not to mention a monumental triumph over adversity story that almost everyone is moved by. It also has the most momentum going into Oscar night.

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